Jonathan P. Baird

While I am not an election predictor, I did notice the recent New York Times/Siena College poll taken before Donald Trump’s latest criminal indictment that indicated that he and President Biden are in a tight race for the presidency. Even if you are, like me, highly skeptical about early polls, the poll reinforced the seriousness of Trump’s candidacy. He appears to be, far and away, the leading Republican contender. Given that, it is important to step back and think about what a Trump second term might look like.

I see it as the consolidation of an American style of fascism and very likely the end of our democracy. My view does not come from liberal or left sources. It comes from listening to what Trump’s team is saying they plan to do if they again achieve power.

Trump plans a sweeping expansion of executive power which would concentrate far greater power in his own hands. He intends to bring powerful government agencies like the Department of Justice (DOJ), the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) under presidential control.

The Trump team has said that they will scour the federal government, including intelligence agencies, the State Department and the Defense Department to remove all officials they consider “disloyal” to Trump.To quote Russell Voight, Trump’s former head of OMB, “What we’re trying to do is identify the pockets of independence and seize them”.

This does not reflect the historic relationship between DOJ and the White House. Historically the DOJ has been independent of White House control. A Trump-controlled DOJ would be used to punish those considered MAGA enemies. It is predictable Trump would direct the IRS into action against those on his enemies’ list.

The Trump team wants to strip employment protection from tens of thousands of federal civil service employees. He would do this by reimposing his Schedule F executive order. Anyone deemed an obstacle to the Trump team will be removed and would be replaced by Trump sycophants. No doubt there would be legal challenges but this is how he would go after what he calls the “deep state”.

Conservatives going back to Reagan and Dick Cheney have touted a theory known as the unitary executive where the president is seen as essentially an elected king. To quote Trump from 2019, “I have an Article II where I have the right to do whatever I want as President”. Trump wants to revive the practice of “impounding” funds. That is, he wants to be able to refuse to spend money Congress has appropriated for programs he doesn’t like.

Dissent would likely become an endangered species as the risk of speaking out would be too great. The Trump view that the press and media are the enemy hasn’t changed. The FCC might be used to silence critics and to end investigative journalism.

Trump is a climate change denier and his first term was a giant step backward on climate but a second term would likely be far worse. The world is running out of time to take action but the conservative brain trust around Trump wants to reverse all federal government efforts to counter climate change.

The conservatives have devised a plan called Project 2025 that would block expansion of the electrical grid for wind and solar energy, would cut funding for EPA’s environmental justice offices and would forbid states from adopting standards like California’s car pollution rules.

Project 2025 is not just anti-science – it is an absolutely sinister effort at the behest of fossil fuel companies to gut environmental regulation at a time when the dangers of global warming have never been more apparent.

For women, I think a Trump second term would be an opportunity to live out The Handmaid’s Tale. Expect an effort for a national ban on abortion with no exception for rape or incest. Imagine the FDA looking to end access to birth control as well as abortion medication. Trump would embolden Christian nationalist lawyers and judges to revive the mummified Comstock Act.

Minorities would face a landscape of intensified voter suppression and gerrymandering. The historian Carol Anderson has pointed out that underlying Trump’s Big Lie was the big lie of voter fraud.

Trump continuously railed about voter fraud in cities with large African-American and minority populations like Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. He and Giuliani mercilessly and falsely slandered election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss. Guiliani has now admitted he lied about Freeman and Moss but Trump can be expected to continue slanders of this nature. He linked black election workers with drug dealers and called Freeman and Moss “hustlers”. Vicious racism is his game and it will continue.

In a twisted reversal, alleged discrimination against white men and Christians would be highlighted. Using the excuse of critical race theory, “patriotic” education which hides the truth about racism would be promoted. As happened in Trump’s first term, hate crimes would spike against people of color and Jews.

The wild card would be where the pent-up hate and rage of MAGA would lead. Would it be directed against trans people, LGBTQ people generally, immigrants, Muslims, Jews or leftists? Would bolstered white supremacists and antisemites take their hate to the next level? Would Proud Boys, Patriot Front, militias and neo-nazis decide it was time to start the civil war?

Trump would likely pardon all January 6 insurrectionists who were convicted of federal crimes who were still incarcerated. He says he will prosecute “the Biden crime family”.

We might see Trump and his sadist allies like Stephen Miller restore family separation and put children in cages again. They talk about outlawing birthright citizenship, a right embedded in the Fourteenth Amendment. Also there is talk about moving to kick undocumented children out of public school, contrary to the Supreme Court precedent in Plyler v Doe.

As many have remarked, Trump is running to stay out of prison as victory offers his best protection but I think the deeper plan is to destroy democracy so he can make himself president for life. That way there is no chance he ever goes to jail. If he wins re-election, he will move to pardon himself as well as his co-conspirators and other MAGA allies who were convicted of crimes. It is highly doubtful there would ever be any more free or fair elections.

The real American carnage is what Trump would unleash in a second term. I would call it fascism. Others might call it “illiberal democracy” like in Victor Orban’s Hungary. It would be the rejection of democracy and the rule of law in favor of rule by a strongman.

Trump is not fighting for anyone else besides himself but the amazing thing is the level of buy-in by so many whom he would never give the time of day. It really is the ultimate con.